Slightly weaker overnight with additional losses after paradoxical PPI suggests weaker PCE. MBS down and eighth and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.344
Bonds moving into positive territory. No obvious motivations apart from stock market weakness and/or technicals. 10yr down almost 1bp at 4.305 and MBS unchanged.
Rally continued with stock selling and bounced with stocks. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.275
Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally impact bonds have been overlooked in favor of a handful of line items buried within each report. The line items in question are those that impact the PCE price index (released 2 weeks from now). In today's case, those specific line items pointed toward higher PCE inflation even though headline/core PPI inflation was lower than forecast.
To recap, PCE is a more important inflation number than CPI or PPI, but CPI/PPI come out 2 weeks earlier and several of their components flow directly into the PCE calculation. For the 2nd day in a row, those components were higher (bad for bonds), even though CPI/PPI came in lower.