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Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible that bonds wouldn't end up saying they had a bad week. That is certainly still the case, but after Friday, it's not as bad as it could have been. PCE inflation came in at 0.1% at the core level, month over month. If inflation repeated that performance for 12 months, annual inflation would be below the 2.0% target. Headline inflation is even lower and has been doing even better in terms of getting back to a target trajectory. Bond traders are largely able to price in PCE data because a good amount of it can be calculated from CPI/PPI which come out 2 weeks earlier. There was still enough of a surprise for 10yr yields to drop a quick 6bps and ultimately end the day 4bps lower than yesterday.
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Dec 20 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Nov | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Nov | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Nov PCE (y/y) (%) | Nov | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 8:30AM | Nov Personal Income (%) | Nov | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 8:30AM | Nov PCE price index mm (%) | Nov | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Dec | 3% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| 10:00AM | Dec Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Dec | 74.0 | 74.0 | 71.8 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Dec | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 10:00AM | Dec U Mich conditions | Dec | 75.1 | 77.7 | 63.9 |
| 10:00AM | Dec Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Dec | 73.3 | 71.6 | 76.9 |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Dec/20 | 589 | 589 | |
| 1:00PM | Dec/20 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Dec/20 | 483 | 482 | |
| Monday, Dec 23 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Nov National Activity Index | Nov | -0.40 | ||
| 10:00AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 81 | |||
| 10:00AM | Dec CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Dec | 113 | 111.7 | |
| 10:00AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.160% | |||
| 10:00AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.250% | |||
| 10:00AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 72 | |||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs (%) | $50 million | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 65 | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction | 4.190% | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 48 | |||
| 11:30AM | 42-Day Bill Auction (%) | 4.270% | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.274% | |||
| 1:00PM | 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 69 | |||
| 7:00PM | US Holiday | ||||
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