Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
It was an extremely volatile, frustrating, and downright weird trading day for the bond market. After starting the overnight session near the lowest yields of the year, the rest of the day was dominated by heavy selling. Ask any market expert to predict today's movement based on a simple inventory of news and events, and a 17bp jump in 10yr yields would be on exactly zero bingo cards. That leaves us to try to piece together best guesses from a laundry list of potential contributors. These are detailed in today's video, but they include things like the inflation implications from trade policy, budgetary implications (lack of tariff revenue implies Treasury issuance), timid buyers ahead of this week's Treasury auctions, fear of reduced foreign bond buying, and a general move to cash as traders look for new opportunities created by recent chaos.
Explaining Monday's Wild Ride in The Bond Market
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 08 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Mar NFIB Business Optimism Index | Mar | 97.4 | 101.3 | 100.7 |
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
| Wednesday, Apr 09 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/04 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/04 | 172.7 | 158.2 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/04 MBA Refi Index | Apr/04 | 961.4 | 710.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Feb | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 10:30AM | Apr/04 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/04 | 2.553M | 2.2M | 6.165M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction | 4.250% | 4.200% | ||
| 12:30PM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.435% | 4.310% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Minutes | ||||
