Patrick Smith
Executive / Management / Banker
Integrated Funding
License:
67369

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data

Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday's overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn't a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that note, Friday is the busiest morning of the week with the 1st look at Q4 GDP as well as December PCE inflation.

Market Movement Recap
08:41 AM

Weaker overnight and little reaction to econ data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.102

12:08 PM

Steady gains all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.081

01:38 PM

Best levels of the day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.068

Latest Video Analysis

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday's Econ Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.0 100.28 +0.00 10YR 4.068% -0.008% 2/20/2026 12:39AM EST
Yesterday's end-of-day recap bore the title "Half-Hearted Correction Continues." It turns out that should have been the title for this morning's commentary as it's a better description of this morning's trading (yesterday, we actually had a few fundamentals to justify the weakness). In today's case, bonds are weaker "just because." Jobless Claims data (206k vs 225k f'cast) didn't help though--especially considering a higher claims reading helped kick off the big rally 2 weeks...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.05% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 5.62% +0.00% 2/19/2026
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Feb 20
8:30AM Q4 GDP Final Sales (%) Q4 4.5%
8:30AM Q4 Core PCE Prices QoQ Q4 2.6% 2.9%
8:30AM Q4 PCE Prices (Q/Q) Q4 2.8%
8:30AM Dec PCE prices (m/m) (%) Dec 0.3% 0.2%
8:30AM Dec PCE (y/y) (%) Dec 2.8% 2.8%
8:30AM Q4 GDP (%) Q4 3% 4.4%
8:30AM Dec Core PCE (y/y) (%) Dec 2.9% 2.8%
8:30AM Dec Core PCE (m/m) (%) Dec 0.3% 0.2%
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Composite PMI Feb 53
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Services PMI Feb 53 52.7
9:45AM Feb S&P Global Manuf. PMI Feb 52.6 52.4
9:45AM Fed Bostic Speech
10:00AM Dec New Home Sales (%) (%) Dec
10:00AM Feb Consumer Sentiment (ip) Feb 57.3 56.4
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Feb 3.5% 4%
10:00AM Feb U Mich conditions Feb 57.7 55.4
10:00AM Feb Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Feb 3.4% 3.3%
10:00AM Dec New Home Sales (ml) Dec 0.73M
Monday, Feb 23
10:00AM Dec Factory orders mm (%) Dec 2.7%
Read My Latest Newsletter
The bond market drives changes in interest rates. Among bond traders, it's no secret that the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report is the most consequential monthly economic data. But this time around, the reaction defied expectations. Specifically, if you were to tell market participants the results ahead of time (i.e. 130k jobs created versus a forecast of 70k, and a 4.3% unemploymen... READ MORE
Patrick Smith
Executive / Management / Banker
Integrated Funding
License:
67369