After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they should be neither. Thursday was a bit exuberant in a good way, and Fridays often see position squaring. A bit of a pull-back is not only survivable but arguably more logical this morning, especially with oil prices being modestly higher. Bottom line: if MBS manage to hold this line without losing much more than a quarter point, and if 10yr yields end below 5%, compare today's closing levels to Tuesday's, consider that the Fed hiked this week and added 1-2 more hikes to the near-term outlook, and that bonds are somehow still better than the day before Fed day.
After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they should be neither. Thursday was a bit exuberant in a good way, and Fridays often see position squaring. A bit of a pull-back is not only survivable but arguably more logical this morning, especially with oil prices being modestly higher. Bottom line: if MBS manage to hold this line without losing much more than a quarter point, and if 10yr yields end below 5%, compare today's closing levels to Tuesday's, consider that the Fed hiked this week and added 1-2 more hikes to the near-term outlook, and that bonds are somehow still better than the day before Fed day.